Africa Has the Fertiliser Inputs It Needs. So Why Is It Still Vulnerable?
The Insider spoke with Dr. Marvellous Ngundu to find out.
The Strait of Hormuz carries up to 30% of internationally traded fertilisers — and since conflict escalated in late February 2026, exports through the strait have collapsed to less than 5% of pre-conflict levels, sending prices for key inputs like urea up 46% month-on-month. Experts have warned of a “food security timebomb” as a result.
This week, The Insider’s Micaela Iveson spoke with ISS Senior Research Consultant Dr. Marvellous Ngundu about why Africa has the raw materials to insulate itself from this kind of crisis — and why, after decades of plans left on shelves, it still hasn’t.
Q: The Hormuz disruptions have hit fertiliser markets hard. But you argue Africa holds many of the inputs it needs. What’s the real bottleneck?
A: The most critical problem is processing. Africa holds significant raw materials needed to produce fertilizer, but instead of processing them on the continent, we export them raw and buy them back as finished products. Morocco is rich in phosphate. Egypt, Algeria, and Nigeria have vast reserves and some capacity to produce phosphate fertilizer. But because processing facilities are lacking, we remain exposed to exactly the kind of supply shocks we’re experiencing now. If that processing happened within Africa, the current price shock need not have affected us at all.
Q: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement aims to create a single market across the continent – ideally facilitating the type of intra-African trade you’re talking about. Is it currently equipped to do so?
A: It’s legally ready — 54 countries have approved it — but not operationally ready. Fewer than 30 have actually started trading under it. More importantly, the initiative is meant to promote regional value chains, not just free trade. The idea is that countries without processing capacity can send raw materials to those that do, rather than exporting extra-Africa. Morocco’s phosphate could be processed in another African country, for instance, and the whole supply chain would stay on the continent.
Q: What about the financial side — are monetary instruments part of the resilience toolkit?
A: Absolutely, and this is underappreciated. African financial markets are shallow, which makes it very difficult to raise capital domestically. That dependency on the global north for investment is itself a transmission mechanism for shocks. We need pan-African financial markets that allow capital to move efficiently across the continent. Right now, even well-capitalized private investors — Dangote is a good example — have faced enormous bureaucratic obstacles trying to establish facilities in other African countries. It’s not a money problem; it’s a process problem.
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“Every African country has had a value addition policy sitting on a shelf for twenty years. The song has been sung for a long time.”
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Q: In 2022, war in Ukraine created a separate, significant shock to fertiliser prices. Between then and now, what actually changed on the policy front?
A: Not much, in terms of implementation. Policies were drafted — but this has been the pattern for decades. Every African country has had a value addition and beneficiation policy sitting on a shelf for twenty years. The song has been sung for a long time. The gap is in implementation, and the main reason implementation stalls is capital. Investors, particularly from the global north, are deterred by political instability and institutional uncertainty. So it loops back: African countries need to address domestic governance if they want to attract the investment their own policies require.
Q: What signals should readers watch to know whether African food systems are getting more resilient?
A: Watch the Dangote refinery‘s reach — the Lagos-based oil refinery, one of the largest in the world when it opened in 2024, has already supplied a number of African countries during this disruption. Watch which new countries operationalise the AfCFTA, and watch collective infrastructure initiatives, like the joint DRC-Zambia plant to process battery minerals. The path forward requires coordinated action across trade, finance, agriculture, and energy — and whether African governments are willing to approach that collectively, rather than individually, will be the real test.
This interview has been lightly edited for brevity and clarity. Read Dr. Ngundu’s recent piece on the Hormuz chokepoint and African food supply here.
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David McNair joined the Board of Directors for Trócaire, an Irish development organisation.
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