Rumble in the jungle
Fossil fuels might get a black eye
Action faction
The Iran war is gifting oil companies big-time profits ($150 billion and counting). But it has sped up investments in renewables by both countries and consumers looking for more reliable and less costly energy sources.
So the world’s first international conference for transitioning away from fossil fuels, which kicks off today in Santa Marta, Colombia and runs through next Wednesday, comes at an opportune moment. “We are not going back to where we were,” Fatih Birol, chief of the International Energy Agency, said last week at the IMF & World Bank Spring meetings.
Indeed, that’s the goal of the conference’s organisers and attendees: to bring together a coalition of the willing to do things differently (read: better & faster). The conference is being billed as an implementation-focused event for those already prepared to take action. That sets a different tone than climate negotiations at COP or the UN, where fossil fuel interests have successfully slowed down progress for decades.
But dear reader, lest you get carried away by hope, here’s a friendly reminder that bureaucracy and diplomacy tend to tether even the grandest ambitions. Organisers expect the official conference outcome to “acknowledge the need for negotiation of a new international treaty to regulate fossil fuels.” Not exactly an inspiring pep rally chant, nor the outcome one might hope for given the urgency. But it’s the first step in a longer process; a second conference hosted by Tuvalu sometime in the next year will aim to secure a formal mandate to negotiate a fossil fuel treaty. So settle in.
— Joe Kraus, Senior Policy Director, ONE Data
If you’d like to keep tabs on what’s happening at the conference, sign up for The Insider on WhatsApp, where we’ll share daily updates next week.
3 things to know
1a. Who’s attending: At least 53 countries with a combined GDP of over $40 trillion, annual oil demand of 10 billion barrels, and 30 trillion cubic feet of gas consumption. That includes Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria, and the UK.
1b. Who’s not attending: Some of the world’s biggest oil and gas producers and consumers. That includes China, the US, India, and major Gulf states.
Why it matters: Even though some major players like the US and China are staying away, the conference includes several significant fossil fuel producers, including Australia, Canada, Mexico, and Nigeria. That makes it harder for skeptics to dismiss the event as a gathering with no teeth. A serious commitment by those countries to transition away from fossil fuels would be hard to ignore, and could entice others to follow suit.
2. How we got here: Any mention of a fossil fuel phaseout was stripped from the final outcome text at COP30 last November, to the frustration of the more than 80 countries that supported it. Instead, the Brazil presidency announced a non-binding fossil fuel roadmap process, to be shaped by the conference that’s taking place over the next several days and then presented at COP31 later this year. Notably, the roadmap will exist outside the formal COP process, meaning it will begin from a relatively weak position.
Why it matters: 30 years of COPs have resulted in some notable—but painfully slow—progress. Fossil fuel producers (and lobbyists) have blocked needed action and will continue to do so in perpetuity. It’s clear that real ambition will only happen through coalitions of the willing that bypass the blockers and move forward outside the formal COP process. That’s likely the best chance for urgent climate action to happen at scale. And the willingness of dozens of countries to effectively go rogue at last year’s COP and start a parallel process indicates that the genie is out of the bottle, and will make COP31 fascinating to watch.
3. The world’s largest economies spend 2.5x more on fossil fuels than on renewables. Nine fossil fuel importing countries spent $314 billion subsidizing fossil fuels in 2024. That doesn’t include the United States, the world’s largest economy, which stopped reporting official figures (the US provided an estimated $14 billion in subsidies in 2022). So spare a thought for climate scientists, whose dire warnings—now proving true—continue to be downplayed or ignored by the world’s biggest polluters.
But that is changing, and fast: The Iran war is speeding up a shift already well underway. 99% of electricity demand growth in 2025 was met by solar and wind power. If you add hydropower and nuclear to the mix, carbon-free sources of power are displacing fossil fuel sources, meaning the energy transition is already underway. And China and India are investing massive sums in green hydrogen, a technology largely overlooked by the West. Fossil fuel usage remains a major concern, however, particularly in industry, jets, ships, and many automobiles. That makes this week’s conference worth paying attention to.
FROM THE ONE TEAM:
Devex highlights ONE Data’s analysis on the rising cost of new debt.
William Menson on how health reform in Ghana will succeed or fail.
David McNair on why the social good sector today looks a lot like the railway systems of the 1840s.
Africa is being repriced. But not in the way people think.
Justin McAuley on what it feels like to visit war-torn Sudan.
IN THE QUEUE:
A survey suggests that G7 citizens overstate foreign aid spending by 20 times.
A year after USAID’s death, fired workers have found few jobs and much loss.
Transparency is the Swiss Army Knife of development.
Why you should start a company instead of working in aid.
ONE Data provides cutting edge data, tools, and analysis so that we can fight together for a more just world. See for yourself.