The future looks African
A continent flexes its muscle
This post was originally published on 7 February 2025.
Western short-sightedness
Something interesting and mostly unnoticed outside of Africa happened this week. At the African Mining conference in Cape Town, South Africa’s Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe said “Let’s withhold minerals from the US. If they don’t give us money, let us not give them minerals. We are not just beggars.”
He was reacting to the US’s threat to suspend aid to South Africa over a recently passed land policy it apparently disliked. He joined a growing chorus of Africans frustrated over perceived (or real) Western meddling and hypocrisy.
It’s the latest illustration of Africa’s willingness to exercise its growing power. The future looks very African – economically, politically, demographically – and those sitting in Western capitals and boardrooms are ignoring it to their detriment.
— Olawunmi Ola-Busari, Political Impact Manager in Johannesburg
3 things to know
1. 1 in 4 people globally will live in Africa in 25 years. Africa’s population will reach 2.5 billion by 2050, up nearly 1 billion people from today. It will mark a big shift from 2000, when Africa accounted for roughly 1 in 8 people.
Why it matters: Africa is poised to become an economic and cultural powerhouse. The global influence of African music and movies – already soaring in popularity – will continue to grow. African “unicorns” – startups valued at over US$1 billion – are on the rise. And Africa is on its way to becoming one of the world’s largest markets, with a young, vibrant population.
2. By 2050, Africa’s working age population will be double the size of Europe and North America’s, combined. Africa’s workforce will swell by 48%, with 427 million new entrants. Meanwhile, Europe and North America’s workforce will contract by 8%, or 61 million people.
Why it matters: African and Western countries are at opposite ends of the demographic spectrum. The average African is 18; the average American is 39, the average European is 44. The average person in Japan? 49. Western countries will have more jobs than applicants. African countries will need to create millions of jobs each year to meet demand. Businesses in search of expanding workforces and markets will be looking to Africa.
3. Africa possesses many minerals critical to the energy transition. That includes cobalt, platinum, manganese, and lithium, which are used in green technologies like solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicle batteries, and carbon storage.
Why it matters: Wary of repeating history when it comes to its natural resources, African countries are looking to maximise the economic benefits of critical minerals. That means finding partners willing to invest in added value refining and manufacturing, not just extraction. With China’s near monopoly on the world’s supply of critical minerals, Western governments and investors are turning to Africa. But they’ll need to engage as equals, and help deliver benefits to local economies.
FROM THE ONE TEAM:
ONE Ubuntu Circle member Dr. Stellah Bosire talked to The New York Times about the devastating impacts of US aid cuts.
ONE’s analysis on net finance flows featured in Forbes.
ONE’s analysis on Africa’s interest rate premium featured by the World Economic Forum.
How abrupt changes to US foreign assistance weaken US influence.
David McNair (and others) on why Europe needs Africa.
IN THE QUEUE:
Foreign aid freeze leaves millions without H.I.V. treatment.
Rapid analysis of initial impacts of US aid freeze (if your organization has been impacted, you can share your story here).
UN sketches global map of mayhem from US aid freeze.
How Christian groups are responding to Trump’s foreign-aid freeze.
No, 90% of US aid is not skimmed off before reaching communities.
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